From Engadget: Swarm AI System Predicted the World Series

Surprise, it’s the Astros.

From Engadget, by Andrew Tarantola:

The 2019 MLB postseason has been a wild one. The Dodgers imploded in the first round, clearing the way for the Washington Nationals to rout a listless Cardinals team and win their first NLCS since 1933. Back East, the Astros won out against the Yankees for American League dominance and a ticket to the World Series. All of these upsets have made the postseason a joy for fans but a nightmare for the gambling community. However, one company thinks it has the answer: Combine the collective wisdom of crowds with modern machine-learning methods into a symbiotic sports-betting hive mind.

You may remember the Silicon Valley startup Unanimous AI from 2016, when its human-augmented AI platform, UNU, correctly guessed 11 of 15 Academy Award winners. The company followed that feat in 2017 when it successfully predicted the top four winners of that year’s Kentucky Derby — a Superfecta that returned 540-to-1 odds. This year, the company has turned its predictive services toward Major League Baseball…

Now that the World Series is set, it’s a good time to look back at how the Sportspicker AI system performed over the course of the MLB Postseason. As reported earlier, the AI produced a complete probabilistic forecast for every team in the playoffs. Topping that list – and many others – were the high-flying Houston Astros, to whom the Sportspicker AI system gave a 27% chance of winning the World Series. With the Astros returning now to try to reclaim the World Series title they won in 2017, they find themselves exactly where Sportspicker AI technology predicted they would be.

But, while the Astros are the odds-on favorite to reach and win the World Series, it’s worth examining where the AI differed from conventional wisdom and expert opinions. In its forecast made on the ever of the Wildcard games, the Sportspicker AI displayed far higher confidence in two teams than many other experts – the Oakland Athletics and the Washington Nationals. At the time, Vegas odds had the Nationals as a +900 underdog to even reach the World Series, which translates to a roughly 10% chance. In contrast, Sportspicker AI gave the Nationals a nearly 17% chance to reach the World Series, and as you can see in the chart above, a 6% chance to hoist the trophy. As any gambler knows, a 7% delta is a tremendous advantage, bigger than the house’s advantage over the player. That’s the kind of insight our Sportspicker AI subscribers are taking quite literally to the bank every week. That means the AI not only foresaw which favorite would perform to expectation, it also identified the longshot teams that would be most likely to cash in a more daring wager.

So, who’s going to win the World Series? According to the Sportspicker AI’s optimized forecast, the Astros hold a slight edge over even the white-hot Nationals. The chart below shows how the AI arrived at its prediction for an Astros victory in six games.

 

For more information on the Sportspicker AI service, please head HERE. The AI will be making predictions and wagering recommendations for the NFL, EPL, MLB and soon, NHL & NBA. 

 

About Unanimous AI (http://unanimous.ai)

Unanimous AI is the maker of Swarm®, the world’s first forecasting platform that amplifies the intelligence of networked teams, and Sportspicker™, a premier sports handicapping service powered by AI.  In 2018, Swarm AI technology from Unanimous was recognized as SXSW’s 2018 “AI Innovation of the Year.” Unanimous’ pioneering work in this area is funded by National Science Foundation (NSF) #NSFFUNDED.

 

Want to learn more about our Swarm AI technology? Check out our TED talk below…

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