Swarming EPL: AI Picks for Week 14



Every year, Premier League fans look to see if some smaller club will bump one of the “Big Six” from the top spots in the standings. As we head into our first set of midweek matches in the current season, a look at the table shows that all six top spots in the league are indeed occupied by a Big Six side.  That doesn’t mean things will necessarily stay there, however. For instance, both Burnley and Watford have demonstrated some real quality thus far this year. They both seem to be circling like sharks, patiently biding time should Liverpool, Tottenham or Arsenal stumble. The quality of play in the League this year from mid-table teams provides plenty of intrigue as we close out the first third of the season.

As the chart shows, the swarm sees no reason not to go all in on the top three teams in the Premiership playing home games against some lesser competition. However the chart might be confusing when Tottenham in the top tier of predictions, while the Liverpool pick sits in the higher-risk section even though the swarm put a higher bet total on the Reds. Let’s cover where that separation happens this week by first considering the Spurs.

There are a couple of important pieces of information to glean from that replay. To begin with, the swarm pulls the puck to a Tottenham win by 2 goals or more.  In a sport where scoring is fairly scarce like Premier League soccer, that 2 goal prediction carries enormous weight when we look at confidence. That marker alone means we just need some minimal confirmation from the swarm on the rest of this match to put it top tier. That corroboration is provided by the 85% Brain Power. It’s also provided when we look at the number of magnets in that replay pulling the puck to the Tottenham side of the hex. The lower wagering confidence is a bit worrisome, and puts the brakes on an otherwise highly confident pick; that’s why it slots in at the bottom of that top tier. Now let’s look at Liverpool.

What jumps right out for this replay is that unlike the previous game, here there’s a single goal confidence. Unless the swarm strongly overrides that in every other area, that almost automatically makes this a mid-tier confidence prediction. The Brain Power of 80% isn’t high enough to overcome that, and we can even see some magnets pulling against Liverpool and towards Stoke and not quickly abandoning that position. Thus, it turns out that the wagering confidence of $75 ends up being the outlier here. All the other information the swarm gave about its confidence in this game marks it as a riskier pick, and thus this game ends up in the middle of the chart.

Every week, researchers at Unanimous AI gather a Swarm of EPL fans to predict all of the weekend’s action. Want to join the Swarm, or just have the picks delivered to your inbox? Click the button below…

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