Pulse Check: Tracking Predictions in the Trump Era


As we approach the end of Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office, one thing is certain: news from the White House dominates the media like no administration in memory. Because the public’s fascination with Trump, his policies, and the palace intrigue that surrounds him shows no signs of waning, researchers at Unanimous A.I. have decided to start tracking public sentiment on key issues over time using our Swarm AI technology, UNU. Swarming allows any group to amplify its intelligence and insight using an AI platform that mimics the way flocks, swarms and schools form to solve complex problems.

To conduct this experiment, researchers formed a Swarm AI system composed of 30 voting age Americans and had it answer five key questions regarding the Trump presidency and administration. In this way, the artificial swarm was able to quickly predict the likelihood of critical events occurring, ranging from tax reform to repealing Obamacare. The replay below shows the swarm of real-time human participants, amplified by AI algorithms, converging on a probabilistic prediction regarding Trump’s chances of passing tax reform.

As you can see, the Swarm is relatively pessimistic regarding Trump’s chances of passing meaningful tax reform in the next 12 months. This issue is complicated, of course, by Trump’s reluctance to release his own tax returns, a decision Chuck Schumer says will make passing “much harder.” Of course, a response of 0-20% covers a wide range of probabilities, so our researchers asked the swarm to drill down in the perceived likelihood.

The full list of UNU’s responses is captured in the chart below. These figures should help us establish a snapshot of how the American voting public felt about these issues in mid-April, 2017. Our researchers will be tracking these numbers over the coming months to see how they change over time in response to events both expected and unforeseen.


Finally, while we’ll be tracking these standard questions regularly, it can also be very revealing to ask UNU to weigh in on the biggest questions of the day. Given the recent reports of conflict between two of Trump’s closest advisors, we asked UNU who has more influence over the President, his Chief Strategist Steve Bannon or his son-in-law, Jared Kushner? And, given Trump’s decision to launch missile strikes on Syria in response to Sarin gas attacks ( after warning President Obama to “stay the hell out of Syria” during a similar crisis in 2013), our researchers wanted to know, which President’s policy on Syria is better for the United States in the long-term?

Finally, given UNU’s responses above regarding Tax Reform and Chuck Schumer’s criticism, our researchers had one final question for the Swarm. Would either event – meaningful tax reform or Trump’s releasing his own tax returns occur during his presidency?

Every week Unanimous A. I. brings together swarms of regular people just like you to help us predict sporting events, investment opportunities, and technology as well as provide insight into everything from pop culture to politics. If you’d like information on joining one of our swarms – or just want to know what UNU sees for the future – please drop us a line below.