SWARM A.I. out-predicts 99% of Super Bowl gamblers
On Sunday, while the Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers fought for Super Bowl glory, another battle silently raged. A new form of of A.I. called a Swarm Intelligence challenged the online masses in predicting 20 PROP BETS. For those who don’t know, Prop Bets allow fans to bet on everything during the Super Bowl from who scores first, to what color Gatorade will be poured on the coach at the end.
The Swarm Intelligence is known as UNU and it works by tapping the wisdom of online groups, combining their knowledge and intuition and instincts into a single unified system that makes each prediction together, in real time. You can ask UNU anything, and get smart answers in under 60 seconds. This is what a swarm looks like, each magnet controlled by a different user from around the world:
Over the past year, Swarm AI has produced remarkable results. Swarms beat 12 out of 13 ESPN experts in making nearly perfect predictions about the NFL Playoffs. The same thing happened at the Oscars, when swarms out-predicted Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times.
Now, the Swarm took on Vegas, picking 20 PROP BETS on the Super Bowl, covering everything from the game winner to the color of Gatorade dumped on the coach. Researchers then challenged 469 gamblers across the internet to try and “Beat the Swarm” for a free chance at a $500 prize.
All of the swarm’s predictions were recorded on February 5th, two days before the game. 20 separate $5 bets were placed on each of the predictions. You can see those picks here: UNU Super Bowl Picks. For the record, here’s what the swarm said about the Gatorade bath:
So, how did the Swarm A.I. do? UNU beat the Vegas odds, scoring 13/19 correct predictions (with one bet being refunded because the event in question did not occur). And with ticket stubs to prove it, the swarm’s predictions would have produced a respectable 35.6% ROI.
This means that when 28 people put their minds together, they did much better than they would have alone. After all, most fans are lucky to break even on prop bets. Researchers at Unanimous A.I. wanted to formally quantify the advantage swarms have over individuals, so….
How many of the 469 challengers beat UNU when placing the same bets? Only 4! The swarm was unbeaten by an astonishing 465 of 469 challengers. This means 99% of the online gamblers would have been well-advised to listen to the Swarm A.I. rather than place bets alone.
Even more interesting, the average win-ratio across all 469 challengers was 9/19 (47%) and produced a gambling loss. This makes sense, because had the average gambler produced a gain, Vegas would not be in business. What doesn’t make sense is that the swarm intelligence was able to defy Vegas with a 68% win-ratio that produced a 36% gain!
And those of you following this blog know, this wasn’t a fluke. Last year, researchers ran the same PROP BET experiment on a smaller scale. UNU generated a 23% gain, and out-performed all but 1 of 74 individual online challengers.
And last month, the swarm took on ESPN when predicting the College Bowl Games. The Swarm generated a 34% gain, while ESPN generated a -24% loss! In other words, a few dozen fans beat the experts by pooling their knowledge and intuition as a unified swarm.
So, how smart was UNU on Super Bowl Sunday?
Researchers compute an Amplified Intelligence Quotient (AIQ). It’s the percent-correct predictions given by the Swarm divided by the average percent-correct of individuals. In this case the AIQ = 144%, which means the swarm showed a 144% amplification of natural human smarts.
Now the researchers want to spread the wealth! Swarms will be predicting College Basketball games, culminating in March Madness. Then they’ll move on to Major League Baseball, including daily fantasy picks. If you want to get our Weekly Picks NEWSLETTER, just click the button.
