UNU has been predicting English Premier League games every Friday for the past few weeks with strong results. This week, the Swarm Intelligence took a look at all eight games to be played in the EPL this weekend.

In order to draw the most useful insight, we asked the participants in the swarm answer two questions about each game. First, we want to know how the Swarm Intelligence thinks the game will turn out, that is, who wins and by how much? Then, with that knowledge in hand, we ask the swarm to recommend how much money they’d theoretically be willing to wager on the game.

Of course, though this second question is expressed in terms of $0 to $100, it is best understood as an expression of relative confidence, rather than a betting recommendation. Here’s how this looks in practice, using Bournemouth vs Liverpool – one of the swarm’s most confident games – as an example.

Question 1: What will be the Outcome between Bournemouth and Liverpool on December 3rd?

Question 2: How much should we bet on the Liverpool to win?

Here is the full list of picks for the weekend, ranked by betting confidence.

Liverpool to beat Bournemouth by 1: REPLAY, worth betting $99: REPLAY

Arsenal to beat West Ham by 1: REPLAY, worth betting $98: REPLAY

Tottenham to beat Swansea City by 2: REPLAY, worth betting $94: REPLAY

Manchester United to beat Everton by 1: REPLAY, worth betting $83: REPLAY

Leicester City to beat Sunderland by 1: REPLAY, worth betting $25: REPLAY

Manchester City to beat Chelsea by 1: REPLAY, worth betting betting $21: REPLAY

West Brom to beat Watford by 1: REPLAY, worth betting $6: REPLAY

Southampton to beat Crystal Palace by 1: REPLAY, but not even worth betting: REPLAY

Stoke City too close to call vs Burnley FC: REPLAY, not worth betting: REPLAY

Middlesbrough Too close to call vs Hull City: REPLAY, not worth betting: REPLAY

Before you go, take a second to look just a little closer at the Leicester City vs Sundarland prediction. As you can see in the linked replay, the Swarm picked Leicester to win by 1. And here’s the replay of the Swarm making its betting recommendation of $25. 

The chart below breaks this replay down a bit further, revealing the Inflection Points where Swarm felt the bet was too high and too low. As you can see, the Swarm felt that the ideal bet on this game was somewhere between 17$ and $25 out of a possible $100.

Check back in on Sunday when we post the results.  We’re tracking how well the swarm does each week as we work to improve the underlying algorithms – driving higher and higher accuracy.

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