Swarm AI Predicts one Blockbuster to Have an Explosive Oscar Night

For the eighth straight year, Unanimous AI is using Swarm AI to predict the outcome of Sunday night’s Academy Awards. In past years, a swarm of average movie fans have repeatedly been more accurate in forecasting the outcome of major Oscars categories than paid expert critics and individual fans alike. Already this year the power of Swarm AI and its ability to capture the collective intelligence and insights of a group of regular fans proved its worth in predicting the underdog Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl. In years past, Swarm AI has correctly predicted a variety of events, from the Kentucky Derby to the 2020 presidential election.

For Sunday’s 96th Academy Awards, a group of movie fans gathered online to predict the outcome of 16 major awards categories. One of the key strengths of Swarm AI is its ability to transform a gathering of regular, everyday fans into an instant expert intelligence that can forecast everything from sports outcomes to current events to market movements with accuracy that matches and often exceeds that of paid professionals. For the 2024 Oscars, Unanimous AI’s Swarm AI predicts one summer blockbuster to radiate in the glow of multiple trophy statuettes.

The process of creating this year’s prediction set involved recruiting a group of movie fans and having them participate online in a live, real-time Swarm session that lasted about 30 minutes. As the chart below shows, their collective predictions resulted in probabilistic outcomes within each category, representing the confidence the participants had in their choices. As the chart below shows, the Swarm predicts a big night for the blockbuster biopic, Oppenheimer.


Swarm AI not only predicts Oppenheimer to win Best Picture, but also for it to sweep wins in a number of other major categories, including Best Director for Christopher Nolan and Best Actor for star Cillian Murphy. The 98% probability that Oppenheimer will win for Best Cinematography represents the highest confidence any previous Oscar swarm has had on a major category forecast. The Swarm is also extremely confident that the brutal British-made holocaust film The Zone of Interest will easily be awarded Best International Film, and that the stark documentary 20 Days in Mariupol will win for Best Documentary Feature Film.

How confident should you be in taking the Swarm AI picks to your Oscar Party Pool on Sunday? Using past years as an indicator, you should feel very confident: last year a similar swarm of movie fans correctly predicted 14 of 16 categories. Over the years, the Unanimous AI Oscars Swarms have shown accuracy ranging from 81% to 93%, a prediction rate that exceeds that of major media critics and Oscar pick aggregation sites.

Of course, using artificial swarms to amplify the intelligence of human groups is useful for far more important things than predicting the Oscars.  For example, the United Nations has used ASI to help them forecast famines in hot spots around the globe, while other groups are exploring the use of swarms to facilitate negotiations among entrenched parties with adverse interests.  And business teams around the globe use Swarm AI to improve forecasts, decisions, and prioritizations by harnessing the wisdom of their teams.

Additionally, Unanimous AI has a new, revolutionary platform, Thinkscape. This new technological breakthrough allows large groups to carry on discussion of difficult problems by harnessing the power of large language models (LLMs) to interconnect smaller groups engaged in simultaneous conversation. Thinkscape offers the opportunity for businesses and organizations to quickly capture deep insights that are both qualitative and quantitative in nature.