UNU Baseball: Tread Carefully when Picking Wildcard Games

Anyone who knows anything about baseball can tell you that no one knows anything about who is going to win the MLB Wildcard games. Tonight we have the big-hitting Baltimore Orioles visiting the equally homer-happy Toronto Blue Jays, in a rematch of the many games they played this season as division rivals in the American League East. Will Tillman earn his 17th win of the season, or will Stroman continue his hot streak at home? We’ll find out at 8pm ET.

Here’s what happened when we asked the Swarm about tonight’s game: 

O's to win Wildcard

If you’ve been following UNU Baseball, you’ll recognize that that this is what we would consider a “Low Brainpower” game, meaning that the Swarm had very little conviction in the outcome, which befits a game as unpredictable as the Wildcard game between two power-hitting division rivals.

With that said, we also asked the Swarm whether or not it would recommend a bet on the Orioles, who are underdogs on the road with +126 odds. That means that a $100 bet would win $126 for a payout of $226 and a 126% ROI.  With those potential profits in mind, this is what the Swarm said:

Should we bet on O's?

Tomorrow night’s game features Madison Bumgarner and the San Francisco Giants on the road against “Thor”, Noah Syndergaard, and the New York Mets. Bumgarner is, as you probably know, one of the most dominant post-season pitchers in MLB history, and though he has struggled a bit this season, the Giants have some strong mojo in even years, having won the World Series in 2010, 2012, and 2014. All that’s standing in their way now is a win-or-go-home game against one of the best pitchers in baseball, in front a hostile New York crowd, after a last-minute cross-country flight.

So, yeah, like I said, these games are tough to predict. Nevertheless, the Swarm was more decisive in its prediction of the Giants, registering 83% Brainpower in picking them to win “by a little.”

Mad Bum leads Giants past Mets

Once again, we followed that question up by asking if the Swarm would recommend a bet on the Giants. Interestingly, the Swarm now recommended that we bet on the Giants +1.5, which is possible because they are slight underdogs on the road.

Should we bet on Giants?

 

That bet, which would pay out if the Giants win OR if the Giants lose by less than 2 runs, pays -230, meaning a bet of $100 would win $43.43 for a return of $143.48 and an ROI of 43.8%. I would never call such a bet safe, it does recommend the Swarm being a little more cautious than if they’d simply recommended a bet on the Giants to win outright.

This should go without saying, but if you’re going to be on baseball – or anything else, for that matter – be smart about it. UNU has a pretty good track record, but baseball is notoriously difficult to predict. And, of course, Wildcard games take that unpredictability to the next level.

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SWARM on BLUE 3