Fox Sports 1 analyst Nick Wright recently took to Twitter for a crowd-sourcing experiment in ranking NFL quarterbacks. Wright wanted to know, if the 11 quarterbacks taken in the first round over the past 3 years were available now, in what order would they be drafted to start a franchise? This sort of impromptu research mimics in some ways Jeff Bezos’ 2017 request for input into how best to donate his vast fortune, and Wright was ultimately able to deliver a ranking of the 11 quarterbacks.

Still, researchers at Unanimous AI couldn’t help but wonder, how would a Swarm AI system rank those same quarterbacks? After all, nature ( as well as numerous academic studies ) has shown us that the best way to capture the intelligence of a group is not a poll or a survey, but rather to form an intelligent system like a swarm. In addition, researchers at Unanimous AI have developed a number of processes and methodologies to improve upon simple preference votes like the one Wright used. The Iterative Elimination Process compels participants to consider and eliminate weaker options in order, as opposed to all at once. As a result, this process ensures that participants are able to evaluate the eventual selection against all other quarterback options the maximum number of times before a final output is achieved.

Here is what that process looks like inside the Swarm AI system. Using the Iterative Elimination Process, the Swarm AI system, composed of the members of our weekly NFL Swarm, was repeatedly asked which QB they would draft last among the available options.

In this way, the Swarm AI system was able system was able to produce a ranked list of the 11 first round quarterbacks over the past three years. Like Wright’s “Knowledge of Crowds” list, the Swarm AI’s final trio included Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff and Carson Wentz. But, whereas Wright’s poll placed Goff just outside the final pairing, the Swarm AI system had Goff vs Mahomes as its final matchup.

The other major departure between the Swarm AI system’s ranking and Wright’s concerns Dak Prescott. The Cowboys quarterback finished dead last in Wright’s ranking, but 6th in the Swarm AI’s list. There are a few potential reasons for the disparity, including a potential anti-Cowboys brigade in Wright’s online voting, and an overly simple methodology which didn’t give Prescott the opportunity to be considered against alternatives often enough. In either case, Swarm AI effectively solves for both issues, first by assigning equal authority to every member of the swarm and then by utilizing more comprehensive methodologies that compel increased participation from the group. And, while Wright’s poll required the input of nearly 30,000 people and over three hours to complete, the Swarm AI was able to reach its optimized output in less than 10 minutes and with fewer than 30 people. Here is the final ranking of the 11 quarterbacks.

Unanimous AI invites you to participate in this weekly series of NFL predictions. You can join the growing community of football fans by following the link below. Unanimous is hosting weekly contests and Swarms to make forecasts for the upcoming matchups, and will be awarding prizes to the highest performers each week. 

Want to learn more about our Swarm AI platform? Check out our TED talk…