Baseball is a sport that frequently confounds expectations. For instance, a casual fan who knows a little bit about the Houston Astros would assume that they’re in first place because of hitting: they play in a cozy ballpark and have a killer lineup of hitters. Truth of the matter is, the Astros are dominating things right now because of starting pitchers. Their rotation is off to a historic start, bringing back memories of the 1990s Atlanta starters, or the 1970s Orioles.

Speaking of confounding, Friday’s baseball swarm had a rough go of it. Though the swarm finished at 7-7, it suffered four ugly high confidence losses. In those games, a last place team (Kansas City, Baltimore, Miami, and San Diego) knocked off a first-place club (the Yankees, Red Sox, Braves, and Pirates, respectively). Those are tough beats, but serve as good reminders that baseball is also a game of probabilities and not absolutes.  Let’s see if today’s MLB swarm performs better.

The swarm’s pick of the night tonight is the Astros, who send Gerrit Cole — one of their aces — out to face the Giants. San Francisco has done an admirable job of weathering early-season injuries, and are starting to enter the conversation in the NL West. Even so, the Baseball Swarm thinks the Astros will be too much for them tonight.

The replay above shows a strong belief in the Astros winning tonight’s ballgame. Although the Giants will put up a fight, the rapid consensus that forms here shows the swarm’s conviction that the Astros should be a heavy favorite. The swarm doubled down on that confidence by assigning this game their highest hypothetical wagering amount, and selecting it (over the Yankees beating the last-place Rangers) as their Pick of the Night.

Unanimous AI runs predictive swarms every week for MLB, the NFL and more. Want those picks delivered to your inbox? 

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