The MLB Swarm has been on a bit of a tear in recent weeks, posting a 45-15 record picking winners over the last four swarms and a 82-38 record since Memorial Day weekend. Naturally, to put up those kind of numbers requires some incredibly strong nights, and recent swarms have posted the sorts of record that would make any forecaster proud: 12-3 earlier this week, 11-4 over the weekend, and a scintillating 13-2 tally two weeks ago. As always, each of those predictions has been ranked by the MLB Swarm’s confidence and conviction in the pick, because good forecasting demands not only a strong history of picking winners, but also the self-awareness to know when to make a prediction, and when to stay away.
With all that said, luck will always play a huge role in determining the success of a sports prediction, and perhaps even more so in the attempt to beat Vegas. Never was the importance of luck on better display than this past weekend, when a missed email enabled one incredibly lucky member of the MLB Swarm community to turn $5 into nearly $500. Last Friday’s MLB picks went out an hour or two before first, as usual, but this member of the Swarm didn’t see the swarm’s picks until nearly half of the games had already started. Undaunted, this ambitious MLB fan decided to put a $5 wager on an eight-team parlay composed of every remaining game on the schedule regardless of the swarm’s confidence in the game. As you can see in the ticket below, that eight-game slate caught lightning in a bottle, and the payout on the wager was over $480, for an unbelievable 9,505$ Return on Investment.
This result is made even more improbable because one of the games that had already started was the matchup between Cleveland and Minnesota, where the swarm backed Cleveland’s Corey Kluber – a favorite for the Cy Young award – to win on what would be his worst start of the season. While that game would surely have been included in any parlay of the MLB Swarm’s highest confidence picks, its early start precluded this member of the swarm from putting it into his parlay, and the remaining predictions turned out to be perfect. Which just goes to show that while thinking together as a Swarm AI can amplify the intelligence of any group, a visit from Lady Luck doesn’t hurt, either.
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