The Group Stage of the 2022 World Cup competition has already had its fair share of memorable moments, from a stunning Saudi upset of the vaunted Argentinian side to a frantic, stoppage time goal by South Korea against Portugal that ensured the Tigers of Asia would advance to the tournament’s next round.
The surprises only continue when seeing which teams are advancing (g’day Australia, didn’t expect to see you here!) and which teams are already boarding planes to head home: for Belgium and Denmark the optimism created in the 2020 Euros seems so long ago…and then there’s Germany missing the knockout stage for the second straight World Cup after winning the championship in 2014.
In spite of the upsets, Sportspicker AI held its own in predicting which 16 teams would make it past the group stage. The Swarm AI system predicted 12 of the 16 teams who advanced (75%), as documented in this blog post.
Now that we are in the Knockout Rounds, a new Swarm AI system of international soccer enthusiasts convened to predict which sides have the best chance to advance. Based upon the AI’s picks, Unanimous AI presents a probability analysis for how likely each of the remaining teams is to win the World Cup on December 18. You will also see the Vegas odds in this chart, which gives you a view of how Swarm AI and the sportsbooks diverge.
As the analysis above shows, the Swarm remains confident that even a Neymar-less Brazil and Argentina are still the top two contenders for the world title (and those two teams could be on a collision course for an epic semifinal match). The Swarm also likes England and The Netherlands as potential dark horse candidates to make a deep run.
On the other side of that coin, the Swarm appears to be a bit disenchanted with Spain’s listless tiki-taka play style, and is unimpressed by the way Portugal appears to force their attack through a rapidly aging Ronaldo. The Swarm responses suggest both of those teams may be overrated currently by oddsmakers.
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