Swarm AI Platform Reveals What Both Parties Should Be Focusing on in the Next Election
President Trump’s historic first foreign trip was initially described as the “the best six days of his presidency” by outlets that are typically critical of the new president. But, as the nine-day trip to Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Italy winds down, the looming investigations into Russian interference with the election and the firing of James Comey cast a shadow over the president’s return to the United States. While those investigations will take months to complete, both parties face immediate questions about how to position themselves.
To address this, researchers at Unanimous AI assembled a Swarm Intelligence composed of American voters, amplifying their wisdom, experience, intelligence and intuition. The objective was to generate insights for both the Republican and Democratic parties in the near term. First, the swarm was asked to consider the best issue for Democrats to highlight in their campaigns.
Will this resonate with voters? A recent Harvard study revealed that 80% of press coverage of President Trump has been negative in recent months. In fact, CNN’s coverage, alluded to above, was 92% negative. This may explain why Trump Unpopularity could be the most powerful unifying force for the Democratic party. An alternate visualization of the swarm’s output below which shows just how dominant an issue unpopularity seems to be for likely voters:
As you can see, the swarm’s answer evolved over time to reflect an emergent belief that campaigning against Trump in coming elections might be as straightforward as Democrats presenting themselves as the opposition party. And yet, such a strategy reveals a potential weakness in Democratic strategy. The #NeverTrump movement failed in both the primary and general elections, and, of course, if media coverage of President Trump skews even slightly more positive, as it has during his foreign trip, the Democrats could be dangerously out of touch.
In contrast, the swarm recommended that Republicans focus their campaigns on the issues. More specifically, the guidance provided by our Swarm AI technology shows that reducing the deficit and balancing the budget should be the foundations of the Republican strategy.
Despite the clear link between a balanced budget and established conservative values, the new president has made far more headlines for his attempts to repeal and replace Obamacare than he has for attempting to cut the deficit. The replay above makes clear how much less important repealing Obamacare is for likely voters, an insight that is echoed by studies that show when Trump took office only 18% of people supported repeal. That’s not much of a mandate, and the swarm’s guidance would be for Republicans to rethink a media strategy that puts repealing Obamacare front and center in favor of one that highlights attempts to balance the budget.
Finally, as you may know, our researchers have been tracking the political guidance offered by our Swarm AI platform on key topics for the past few months, and trends are starting to emerge. As you can see in the chart below, the swarm’s forecasted likelihood for repealing/replacing Obamacare in the next 12 months has been rather pessimistic in general, with a peak around 45% registered the day after the AHCA passed the House on May 4th with the Macarthur. That milestone was celebrated widely by the White House, including a controversial victory party in the Rose Garden, but that is only the first step toward replacing Obamacare, and, as the swarm makes clear, that momentum quickly dissipated.
Every week Unanimous A. I. brings together swarms of regular people just like you to help us predict sporting events, investment opportunities, and technology as well as provide insight into everything from pop culture to politics. If you’d like information on joining a swarm – or just want to stay up to date on the latest predictions – fill out the form below.
