One of our favorite things to do at UNU is ask our Swarms to predict major sporting events. And why not? Swarms have proven themselves to be remarkable at picking winners in the major team sports like football, hockey, basketball, and even horse racing. But can they reproduce that same magic for tennis? And what better place to find out than Wimbledon, the grandest Slam of them all?
Serena Williams and Novak Djokovic enter Wimbledon as two of the most dominant champions tennis has ever seen. Williams is the only player – male or female – to win 10 Grand Slam titles in two different decades, and her 21 Grand Slams make her 2nd in the Open era behind Steffi Graf’s 22. She currently holds the Wimbledon, French and Australian Open titles, and was a semifinalist in the U.S. Open. Somehow, Novak Djokovic has been even better. The world’s #1 has won 30 straight Grand Slam matches ( 3rd best all-time ) and currently holds all four Grand Slam titles.
As play opens in London at the Championships at Wimbledon, the question on everyone’s lips is not, who will win Wimbledon?, but rather, can anyone beat Serena Williams or Novak Djokovic? In the interest of full disclosure, the writer of this post is fully in the tank for Roger Federer, and has been for over a decade now. But even I can admit that Federer should be considered the (charming, brilliant, affable) underdog at this point in his career, and Djokovic is the man to beat.
The dominance of Williams and Djokovic can not be underestimated, and in fact, every single ESPN expert has predicted that Serena will win Wimbledon, and 6 out of 11 said the same for Novak. Why no one picked (charismatic, kind to animals, multilingual) Federer is a mystery to me.
But, as we’ve seen in the past, expert predictions are not always the best source. Here at Unanimous AI, we use a Swarm Intelligence technology called UNU to tap the collective intelligence of fans. Swarms have been remarkably accurate in the past, outperforming every ESPN expert when predicting the NFL and College Football Playoffs as well as the Stanley Cup. So, we had to know, what would the Swarm say about Wimbledon?
As you can see, the Swarm shares the same sentiment as the cadre of ESPN tennis experts: not only is Serena the clear favorite, there’s no one in the field worthy of taking a flyer on. For the record, Vegas seems to agree, where Williams is not only the betting favorite at +150, her next closest competitor is a true longshot at +550, meaning a $100 bet will win you $550 in profit. Given Serena’s 6 previous championships at Wimbledon and the Swarm’s confidence in her, just this once I’m willing to side with the ESPN experts.
But what about Novak Djokovic? Who would the Swarm pick if choosing between him and the field?
The Swarm’s choosing “Someone Else” is fascinating, because while Swarm once again shares the sentiment of the ESPN experts ( this time uncertainty about the eventual winner, rather than confidence ), Djokovic is actually an even bigger betting favorite than Serena. In other words, a $100 bet on Serena would pay $150 in winnings, but the same bet on Djokovic would pay only $66.67. That means that gamblers, like most people, think Djokovic is most likely individual to win, but, because the next closest competitor is Andy Murray +350, means that the perceived gap between Djokovic and his peers is actually less than the gap between Serena and hers.
So, tennis fans and degenerate gamblers, what should you do with your hard-earned money? If you listen to the Swarm, you’d put some cash on Serena to win. And, since the Swarm likes “someone else” to take home the men’s trophy, the aforementioned Andy Murray at +350 and potential spoiler Milos Raonic at +2200 could make you some money. As for me? I’ll be following the Swarm’s advice on both sides of the bracket. On the women’s side, I’ve got Serena to win it all. But, on the men’s side, if the Swarm says that someone besides Novak is taking the title, I’m putting my paycheck on the (handsome, worldly, crafty) Roger Federer.
May the best man and woman win.
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