Few predictions on the Swarm platform present as unique a challenge as forecasting English Premier League games. Unlike any other sports predictions that various groups attempt, the EPL always has three reasonably likely outcomes to any match – wins, losses, and ties. Most games in the Premiership fixtures list carry somewhere between a 20-30% likelihood of ending drawn at the end of full-time. That means that often a favorite to win a match may not be more than 45% likely to achieve that outcome. For other sports that the swarm predicts, even a mild favorite usually has a 55-60% chance of winning.
All of that is worth remembering when we look at the performance of the weekly EPL Swarm through the first 9 match-days of the 2018 Premier League season. The swarm currently owns a 68% accuracy rate. That’s remarkably high for any sports predictions, but for predicting a league with the three – rather than two – outcomes? It’s something unprecedented for the research team at Unanimous to even try to fathom. Looking to keep that incredible run of forecasting going, the swarm earlier today made these picks for the weekend matches.
Just two points separate the top five in the Premier League table at the start of the 10th week of games. That may be subject to change after the weekend, however. Manchester City have a tough away match at fifth-place Tottenham. City’s likeliest rivals for the League Championship – Liverpool – have what appears to be a much easier test against Cardiff City at Anfield. In this latter match, the swarm loves the Reds chances.
Cardiff City secured their first win of the year last week by hanging four goals on a porous Fulham defense. This week they face a much tougher task against Liverpool. The swarm – unconcerned that the home side may be looking past Cardiff in this spot – make Liverpool a strong, heavy consensus pick in the replay above. The swarm later doubled down on this conviction by making Liverpool their overwhelming pick of the week.
Every week, researchers at Unanimous AI gather a Swarm of EPL fans to predict all of the weekend’s action. Want to join the Swarm, or just have the picks delivered to your inbox? Click the button below…
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