This week, Major League Baseball takes a collective deep breath and puts a pause in its relentless season for a few days in order to play the All Star Game. The All Star contest is just part of how baseball celebrates itself during the midsummer break, with a Futures Game, celebrity softball, and a number of fan-friendly initiatives taking center stage.
In addition to the All Star Game, of course, is the Home Run Derby, which has become as popular as the main game itself in recent years. This year’s Home Run Derby format matches up eight sluggers in a bracket-style tournament format. Each hitter gets four minutes to slug as many baseballs over the wall as he can manage, with bonus time added for hitting multiple home runs that travel over 440 feet. Unanimous AI convened a swarm of knowledgeable baseball fans earlier today to try to predict a winner in this competition. Here’s how they ranked the eight hitters for likelihood to win the Derby.
The All Star Game and Home Run Derby are being held this year at Nationals Park in Washington DC, and as the chart above shows, hometown hero Bryce Harper is the swarm’s heavy favorite to win this competition tonight. The swarm predicted slugging Brewers first-baseman Jesus Aguilar, Cub outfield Kyle Schwarber, and surprise Dodger hero Max Muncy to join Harper in the semifinal round, but it’s Harper that is the clear choice of the group to win. Braves slugger Freddie Freeman and Phillies outfield Rhys Hoskins end up at the bottom of the list, mostly because of the swarm’s high confidence that those two hitters would be defeated in the first round by Harper and Aguilar respectively.
The actual All Star game on Tuesday presented an interesting challenge for the swarm. The American League is top-heavy with quality teams, while the National League talent seems a bit more evenly distributed. Even so, the swarm predicts with mild confidence a win on Tuesday for the American Leaguers.
Unanimous AI runs predictive swarms every week for MLB, the NFL and more. Want those picks delivered to your inbox?
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