UNU Goes to the Movies, March 3 2017
Stop us if you’ve heard this one before. 20th Century Fox uses the February-March release window to put out a cash cow action film centered on a cult-favorite superhero set in the Marvel Comics Universe. Last year Deadpool became the surprise hit that dominated the winter action movie market. This year, Fox may get lightning to strike twice in consecutive years with Logan, one of three nationwide releases to hit theaters this weekend.
Researchers at Unanimous A. I. assembled a swarm of 35 casual movie viewers to get their impressions of these three films. To tap into the group’s intelligence and insight, they were asked to watched trailers for the weekend’s big player, Logan, as well as for inspirational Christian film The Shack and teen thriller Before I Fall and then predict how successful those films would be in their opening weekends using Unanimous’s Swarm A.I. technology.
The swarm of movie fans thinks Logan has a very good chance of repeating Deadpool’s success from 2016. The swarm found the trailer to be exciting, even if they expressed a bit of superhero movie fatigue. Even so, the swarm predicted that Logan would have a fantastic weekend, finishing above an $86m industry forecast. Why the rosy prediction? The swarm made it pretty clear that an action blockbuster like this is best experienced in theaters with other fans.
For the other two films opening this weekend, it’s a tale of managed expectations. While both The Shack and Before I Fall are opening on 2,500 screens Friday, industry watchers have wildly different expectations for the two movies. The trailer for the teen thriller Before I Fall did not make a good impression on the swarm at all. As a result, the Swarm A.I. revealed that this was the kind of movie that even the target audience would probably wait to catch at home. Although the swarm thought the industry prediction of was largely on target, that target was a pretty weak $3.5 million.
On the other side of the coin is The Shack. On the surface, this overtly religious film looks like the kind of specialty movie that gets pigeon-holed for its obvious appeal to Christian audiences. The Shack, however, has some serious star power in Sam Worthington and Octavia Spencer, and the swarm reacted warmly to the trailer as a result. Even so, the swarm wasn’t convinced that the film would have enough crossover appeal to hit optimistic $12.5 million dollar estimates this weekend.
Unanimous A.I. conducts swarms about movies, music, sports, and politics every week. If you’d like to get more information on these UNUs and their predictions, please drop us a line below.
