In the long, proud history of the United States of America, only one president has resigned from office. Back in 1974, after battling the Watergate scandal for two years, President Nixon left of the Oval Office, a move he hoped “will have hastened the start of the process of healing which is so desperately needed in America.” No president before or since has taken such a drastic measure when faced with the inevitable challenges of being the most powerful person in the free world, but recently some pundits have started to predict that President Trump might actually be considering resignation.
Tony Schwarz, the ghostwriter who helped Donald Trump pen his infamous 1987 business bible, The Art of the Deal, has been making headlines in saying that the President “will resign by fall, if not sooner.”
Calls for the President to resign have been echoed by left-leaning celebrities like David Letterman and former Vice President Al Gore, and oddsmakers have seen the likelihood of his resignation increase from 7 to 1 at his inauguration, to 50/50 at the end of last week. To be fair, these sorts of rumors circulated throughout the campaign, and Michael Moore famously assured liberals that “Trump never wanted to be president. I know this for a fact,” in August, but his predicted dropout never came to fruition. So how likely is the President to actually abdicate the Oval Office?
To find out, researchers at Unanimous AI have been using their Swarm AI technology to forecast a number of key issues facing the President for the past few months, including the likelihood that Trump leaves office for any reason. Swarming complicated questions like the President’s chances of passing tax reform or healthcare allows any group to amplify its intelligence and intuition, offering insight that no individual could reliably produce on their own.
As you can see in the chart above, this weekly Swarm of American voters has consistently revealed a significant chance that the President would not complete his term. With an average chance of around 25%, trending upward over time, the Swarm AI technology displays a clear conviction that the likelihood of Trump’s leaving office is far higher than one would expect, given that the act is almost completely unprecedented.
Every week Unanimous A. I. brings together swarms of regular people just like you to help us predict sporting events, investment opportunities, and technology as well as provide insight into everything from pop culture to politics. If you’d like information on joining a swarm – or just want to stay up to date on the latest predictions – click the button below.