SWARM OF ELITE SWIMMERS BEATS SPORTS ILLUSTRATED EXPERTS

When it comes to Olympic swimming, very few things go according to plan.  And this year has been no exception – organizers have struggled just to keep the water blue, Ryan Lochte and three other swimmers were robbed at gunpoint, and this kid just beat Michael Phelps in his final individual Olympic race.

So if you’re going to try and predict the Olympic swimming medals, you’re going to need some help. That’s why the researchers at Unanimous A.I. turned to a group of world-class swimmers and a cutting-edge technology called Swarm Intelligence to help them make sense of a sport where world champions regularly fall, ties can result in three silver metals for a single event,  and races are decided by thousandths of a second.  This is how it worked: a dozen world class swimmers, most of whom competed in Olympic Trials, worked together using a software platform called UNU that allowed them to combine their knowledge and intuition as a real time swarm and make predictions about Olympic gold.

Now that the swimming action in Rio is concluded, it’s time to take a look at how that expert Swarm did. As a reminder, this is what it looks like when this incredible group of swimmers uses UNU to collaborate on a prediction.

As you can see, the Swarm of elite swimmers predicted Adam Peaty of Great Britain would win the gold in the 100 meter breaststroke.  This particular pick was not controversial, as Peaty was among the top favorites.  But not all races were as easy to call.  In fact, the swarm of elite swimmers was asked to make a prediction as to the total number of golds the U.S. swimmers would bring home.  As context, sports experts issued dire warnings in advance of Rio, citing relatively slow times at the U.S. trials suggesting an end to U.S. dominance in the sport. That’s not what the UNU swarm predicted:

As you can see, the Swarm of elite swimmers predicted that the United States would finish with 15 to 19 Olympic gold medals. And when both the United States Women and Men’s 4×100 Medley Relays won gold on the last day of swimming, the Americans finished with 16 gold medals. In other words, the Swarm correctly predicted an historic Olympics for the United States, as the total of 16 gold medals matches the highest team total ever , and the next closest team in this year’s Games was Australia with just three gold medals.

So, how did the Swarm do against the so-called experts in the media? To find out, we gather Sports Illustrated’s Olympic Swimming predictions, and compared them against the Swarm. As you can see in the chart below, the Swarm beat Sports Illustrated’s experts 4 to 3 in the 8 events for which both registered. I guess we shouldn’t be surprised, as this group of swimmers is very accustomed to winning, but while they are very experienced in the pool, this was their first time using UNU.

If you watched any of the Olympic swimming action in Rio, you know that some of the races below were incredibly close. But, if you want to know what to expect in such an unpredictable sport, it looks like you’re best bet is to ask a Swarm of people who truly know it best.

If you want to try Swarming for yourself, drop by UNU at any time: UNU