Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are ready to be crowned at their respective party’s conventions. And yet, after over a year of campaigning, there are still lingering questions about their ability to lead, their judgment, and how their policies would impact  unemployment, innovation, regulation…

With so much uncertainty, researchers wanted to gauge public sentiment. They used Swarm Intelligence, a method that allows groups to think together in real time. This may sound high-tech, but swarming is an essential part of collective decision-making in the animal kingdom, allowing flocks of birds, swarms of bees, and schools of fish to make better decisions together than they could on their own.

Swarms are smart, outperforming polls, surveys, and even experts.  In recent months, swarms correctly predicted major events from the Super Bowl and Oscars, to the Kentucky Derby Superfecta, a feat Newsweek called “the Holy Grail.” But, swarms can do more than make predictions…

In this study, researchers gathered 85 American voters of mixed party affiliation, and had them form an online swarm. The swarm was asked sets of identical questions regarding Trump and Clinton.  Replays of these responses are presented below,  side-by-side for comparison. This reveals remarkable similarity in sentiment about the two candidates on many issues, as well as stark contrasts.

RESULTS

ISSUE#1:  SOCIAL UNREST

In the wake of recent police shootings, civil unrest is at a fever pitch.  Unfortunately, as you can see below, the public is not optimistic that either candidate, as president, would be able to address the issue:

ISSUE#2:  GET IT DONE

The Swarm was asked to express a level of confidence in the candidates ability to get things done while in office.  With both Trump and Clinton campaigning on their skill at working across party lines, you might think the public is optimistic that gridlock will be reduced.  The replays below tell a different story, the public deeply pessimistic about both candidates:

ISSUE#3:  UNEMPLOYMENT

With Trump campaigning as a successful businessman, you might expect public opinion to be far stronger on the side of Trump when it comes to reducing unemployment.  This research reveals that the public is not optimistic about either candidate on this front.  The view is that Clinton’s policies would have no effect, while Trump’s proposed actions would increase employment:

ISSUE #4 TRUSTWORTHINESS

It’s easy to make the case that “trustworthiness” is one of the most important characteristics in a potential candidate, and yet Trump and Clinton are both seen as equally untrustworthy. Barring the rise of a third party candidate, the new President will be seen as “not at all trustworthy” according to the research.

ISSUE #5 ETHICS

With that lack of confidence in mind, it seems like an ethical scandal would be likely in either a Trump or Clinton presidency. And, in fact, that is just what the voters believed. As you can see, the research reveals essentially identical levels of certainty in Trump and Clinton performing unethically while in office.

ISSUE#6:  THE ENVIRONMENT

Few issues split across party lines as deeply as the environment.  With that context, you might expect the Democratic candidate to be viewed as far stronger on the environment than the Republican.  As shown in the replays below, this research suggests the public is skeptical that either candidate is deeply committed to the environment:

ISSUE#7: WHAT’S DRIVING VOTERS?

In an election cycle marked by strong feelings on both sides, researchers wanted to know what was driving voters to support one candidate or the other. Would the wide-eyed wonder that elected Obama carry either Trump or Clinton into office, or would voters simply be choosing “the lesser of two evils?”  This is what the Swarm Intelligence had to say:

Clearly the public is pessimistic about both candidates.  In fact, this research shows that public’s opinion is remarkably similar (and negative) around both Trump and Clinton, believing neither candidate would be able to accomplish much in office.

Of course, there’s still lots of time before the election, so public opinions may change dramatically.  And with the upcoming Republican and Democratic Conventions on tap, both candidates will try hard to reduce their negatives.  Watch this space, because researchers will repeat these questions after the conventions to see if either candidate improves their image.

Want to be part of a swarm?  Great – just fill out the form below, and you’ll get an invite to future predictions: