BETTING on BASEBALL using SWARM INTELLIGENCE

The basic principle behind Swarm Intelligence is that by thinking together, groups make better decisions than the individuals would make on their own. That ability has allowed ants to optimize their colonies, fish to protect themselves from predators, and flocks of birds to navigate their way to shelter. The billion dollar question has always been – could humans pool their intelligence this way, and if so, what could we accomplish?

Here at Unanimous AI, we were too impatient to wait for evolution to do its thing. So we created a social swarming platform that allows people to think together in real time. And though it’s still early in the development of Swarm Intelligence, we already know one thing people love to do with it: gamble.  From the Oscars to the Super Bowl, the Presidential primaries to the Kentucky Derby, groups using Swarm Intelligence have made a huge returns betting on their own predictions.

If the average person can pick a winner Against the Spread 50% of the time, Vegas’s cut means that the house always wins over time. But what happens if the technology of Swarm Intelligence allows groups to beat the spread 55% of the time?  Or 60%?  This would turn the tables, making gambling into far less of a gamble.  With that in mind, a group of brave sports fans wanted to see if Swarm Intelligence could help them make some cash on a game that most people think it is nearly impossible to predict – baseball.

This Swarm met on a Friday morning and picked almost every game on the Major League schedule that day – 12 games in all. The group comprised 17 baseball fans from across the United States, but no professional gamblers or experts. Each member of the Swarm was also asked to make their predictions individually, so that we would be able to compare their results to the Swarm’s. This is what it looks like when the Swarm was asked to predict the match-up between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Arizona Cardinals.

As you can see, the Swarm predicted the Dodgers would win by 2. This was a good pick by the Swarm, since the Dodgers ultimately ended up winning against the spread.  But that’s just one game. The real question is, how did the Swarm do across 12 games?

In short, the Swarm did very well. Given the conventional wisdom that any single game is essentially a toss up, some facts about their prediction might be surprising, or not, depending on your confidence in Swarm Intelligence:

• The Swarm picked 8 out of 12 winners against the spread — 67% accuracy

No, the Swarm wasn’t perfect, but Vegas line is designed so individuals win only 50% of the time.  Thus, by using Swarm Intelligence, this group was able to achieve a 17% improvement over the expected success rate.  This is the difference between taking a small loss, as Vegas expects, and making a moderate profit.

To put this in perspective, I decided to put $10 on each of the Swarm’s 12 picks. And because of my confidence in Swarm Intelligence, I not only bet on who the Swarm said would win the game, but who the Swarm said would cover the Spread. Since the Spread makes the game a seemingly 50-50 proposition, this is a true test of predictive ability.

As you will see, the eight bets in GREEN were bets that the Swarm won, while the four losses in red. There was one bet where the Swarm correctly picked Cincinnati to win, but the Reds failed to cover, resulting in a loss Against the Spread. And yet, even with that, the Swarm produced an excellent return on investment.

If you add up the winnings below, you’ll see that the Swarm helped me turned $120 into $165.26. That’s a very, very healthy 38% ROI. When you consider that hedge fund managers take home billions and barely ever beat the Market, much less generate even a 10 or 20% return, you’ll start to see why so many are turning to Swarm Intelligence.

It shouldn’t be surprising that this group is looking to make another set of baseball predictions next Monday. If you’d like to join the Swarm ( or just be advised of their picks! ), please let us know. Even if you don’t know anything about baseball, all are welcome. This should be a fun experiment to see what we’re truly capable of when we think together:

To get involved, all you need to do is drop me a line here:

Joey the Greek’s Bets: