This afternoon, presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton will make her first appearance appearance on the campaign trail with President Barack Obama. That appearance should go more smoothly now that the FBI has declined to indict Clinton for mishandling classified information while Secretary of State. The controversy surrounding Clinton’s private email server had dominated political conversation and threatened to derail a campaign years in the making.
Those who follow Swarm Intelligence know we use the UNU platform to make predictions across a wide range of events from sports and movies, to politics and world affairs. So, did the swarm make the correct prediction? Here’s a formal forecast made by a swarm of 80 participants back on June 1st:
As usual, a Swarm Intelligence comprised of average people made the correct prediction. And in fact, we saw a half-dozen other predictions made by swarms over the last few weeks, all predicting the exact same result, that Hillary would NOT get indicted.
Of course, the question of whether the FBI will indict is different from whether or not they should. This, too, was answered by swarms using the UNU, reflecting the ability of a Swarm Intelligence to clearly differentiate between a prediction of what will happen, and an opinion of what should happen:
In drawing this distinction, Swarms of users are demonstrating a keen ability to distinguish between giving subjective sentiments (opinions), and purely objective forecasts (predictions). And both seemed to prove accurate. After all, FBI Director James B Comey told the New York Times, while Clinton was “extremely careless” in using a private email server, “no reasonable prosecutor would bring such a case” against her.
In other words, at a time when political discourse seems to reach new lows daily, with individuals on both sides hurling childish insults at one another, leave it to the Swarm to make reasonable, accurate predictions about the most important issues.
Want to participate in a swarm? You can, at any time by visiting UNU.
