Unanimous A.I. registers another Remarkable Prediction
In early January, weeks before Donald Trump took office, researchers at Unanimous A.I. were challenged by the editors of the investing magazine Modern Trader to predict the incoming president’s Approval Rating at the all important 100 day milestone. Like the many other challenges Unanimous has accepted from journalists in the past, the company used its Swarm A.I. technology to generate a forecast for publication.
This was a daunting task, as the Trump presidency had not even yet begun, was likely to be unpredictable, and was unlikely to follow the trends of other recent administrations. Still, Unanimous was confident that it’s Swarm A.I. technology could generate predictive intelligence of high value. Now that President Trump is at the end of his first 100 days in office, we can ask the all important questions – how did the A.I. do?
In a word…perfectly.
As shown in the replay below, the A.I. converged on a prediction of 42%, which at the time it was generated seemed shockingly low. After all, other recent Presidents have seen approval ratings between 58% and 61% at the end of their first 100 days. But despite the significant departure from recent trends, the prediction from Unanimous A.I. was not just close – it was perfect, as the latest poll-of-polls pegs Trump’s overall approval rating at the 100 mark at exactly 42%. This is echoed by the latest ABC News / Washington Post poll, which also reported 42%.
How can the prediction be so accurate, so far in advance? Simply put – people are smart, and Unanimous makes them even smarter. By using A.I. algorithms modeled after swarms in nature, Unanimous combines the knowledge, wisdom, insights, and intuitions of groups of people into a single amplified intelligence that is able to significantly outperform the predictive abilities of its individual members.
This is hardly the first time Unanimous has defied the odds – over the last 12 months, the company has made headlines by accurately predicting the Presidential primaries, the World Series, the Kentucky Derby, the Oscars, the Grammy’s, and even the meteoric rise in the price of Bitcoin. But of all their recent predictions, this one may be the most unexpected because the forecast so completely defies historic trends.
To appreciate this, we need review where Trump’s approval rating sits historically. In the modern era, no President has had an approval rating anywhere close to this low at the 100 Days milestone. As shown in the graphs below from FiveThirtyEight, the last three men to hold the Oval Office has their approval ratings hovered around 60% for their first 100 days, and if anything trended upward during that period. Trump on the other hand, had a quick surge towards 50%, but then followed a steady decline down to the 42% mark where he currently sits.
In short, there was no clear precedent for the Swarm AI to follow to derive its 42% prediction. But, because swarming combines the group’s knowledge as well as its intuition, the AI was able to discern that Trump was uniquely capable of an unprecedented approval rating.
Of course, 100 days is not enough to judge a President, and Trump will have many opportunities to turn his approval rating in the coming years. How he handles developing conflicts in North Korea, Syria, and at home with tax reform will all help shape not only his approval rating, but also his legacy. But, if you want to know how Trump will likely fare over the remainder of his presidency, you need not wait years to see it unfold, nor conduct a poll with thousands of people. The most efficient – and most accurate – way to look into the future is with Swarm AI technology.
Every week Unanimous A. I. brings together swarms of regular people just like you to help us predict sporting events, investment opportunities, and technology as well as provide insight into everything from pop culture to politics. If you’d like information on joining a swarm – or just want to stay up to date on the latest predictions – fill out the form below.