LOOKING AT A WILD DAY AT THE KENTUCKY DERBY
To state the obvious – hitting the superfecta is really hard, and this year it was much harder than last year with the final odds being 76,000 to 1. That’s just plain crazy. And yet, the expert handicappers at Churchill Downs put together a players’ pool that actually came remarkably close to hitting the superfecta based on the guidance the Swarm A.I. gave them. In fact, had Lookin at Lee and Battle of Midway just flipped order, we would have hit a superfecta for the second year in a row.
How could the players pool have come so close to hitting a superfecta?
That’ was possible because the predictive intelligence that the Swarm A.I. system provided to Churchill Downs indicated a range of likely options, with confidence values for each. For a flat and unpredictable field, this provided valuable guidance. Here is the table that was given to the Churchill Downs handicappers, but now with the FINISHING ORDER noted so you can see how the swarm did:
As you can see, the swarm guidance’s was reasonable, as it surfaced 4 out of the top 5 horses. But, no one saw 32-1 Looking at Lee coming.In fact, not a single expert in the swarm listed Lookin at Lee as a possible top-5 finisher on their personal predictions.
So how did the experts do, as individuals, compared to the unified swarm? If we count the average number of correctly identified top-four finishers, the Swarm A.I. outperformed the expert handicappers who composed the swarm:
AVERAGE EXPERT: 1.6 Horses Correct
UNIFIED SWARM AI: 2.0 Horses Correct
.
In other words, the swarming process amplified the intelligence of the experts, boosting the average performance from 1.6 horses correct, up to 2.0 horses correct. That means the experts would have been better off, as a group, going with the swarm than going with their own individual picks. But, without 32-1 Lookin at Lee in anyone’s forecast, the players pool missed out on the massive superfecta.
.
What did we learn today? Some outcomes are just not predictable. Especially a 76,000 to 1 superfecta.
.
Every week Unanimous A. I. brings together swarms of regular people just like you to help us predict sporting events, investment opportunities, and technology as well as provide insight into everything from pop culture to politics. If you’d like information on joining a swarm – or just want to stay up to date on the latest predictions – fill out the form below.
The news, information, opinion, and recommendations on this website are for education and entertainment only. This information is not intended to violate any local, state, or federal laws, and all persons using this website are solely responsible for complying with the laws of the jurisdictions in which they reside. Unanimous A.I. is not responsible for the accuracy of any predictions made on this website, and does not recommend using the information on this site for wagering. Unanimous A.I. does not intend to encourage or condone gambling in jurisdictions where it is prohibited or by persons who are under 18 years of age.
