Thanks to legalization trends, betting on sports in the U.S. has never been hotter. And no sport is more popular to bet on in the U.S. than football, particularly the NFL. Yet NFL betting against the spread is among the more difficult endeavors there is. It requires a deep understanding of not only the teams and players involved, but also how the spread is determined and how it can affect the outcome of the game.
The spread is determined by oddsmakers, who take into account a variety of factors, such as a team’s performance, injuries, and weather conditions, to determine how many points they are expected to win or lose by. So predicting NFL games against the spread is much more difficult than predicting the outcome of the game itself, due to the complexity and uncertainty involved.
Against that backdrop, this NFL season Unanimous AI has been using Swarm AI technology to predict every NFL game against the spread. Each week we assembled a group of about 25 regular NFL fans to work together using our Swarm software to predict all the games. We sent out our top picks to subscribers of our Sportspicker AI service.
The results have exceeded our expectations. Through 13 weeks of the regular season, the published picks are 52-27, which is 66% accurate. In the sports betting world, this is considered an outrageously high accuracy rate. For context, the spread is set up to bring in equal amounts of dollars on both sides of each bet. Therefore the average bettor should expect to be about 50% accurate betting against the spread, while the benchmark for professional handicappers is 55% over an entire NFL season.
The graph below compares the Sportspicker AI results to average bettors and the professional benchmark. You can see that at 66%, the system has generated over $12,000 to anyone who placed $100 bets according to our predictions and pick ratings. That dwarfs the earnings of aveage bettors who actually lose money at 50% accuracy (thanks to the vig they pay their sportsbook). And it’s more than double that of a professional handicapper who managed to average 57%.
We are of course believers in Swarm AI, but we are astonished by these results. It really shouldn’t be possible to achieve predictive accuracy that is twice as good as the top professionals. But that’s exactly what we have done. And we’re not doing it with data, algorithms, and machine learning. We’re doing it with groups of regular people using Swarm AI to amplify their human intelligence. That’s the power of Swarm AI.
If you’re interested in Swarm AI-generated sports picks, you can check out Sportspicker AI here.