A few weeks ago, TechRepublic challenged, UNU, a Swarm Intelligence, to predict the winner of the Kentucky Derby.  The swarm delivered the first four horses in order (a wager called the “superfecta”) and turned a $20 bet into $11,000.  Because the picks were published on the TechRepublic website in advance, bettors across the internet won thousands of dollars, and yet, some people remained skeptical.

That’s when a reporter from C|NET issued a new challenge: the Stanley Cup.  So, a swarm was convened and the prediction were published two weeks ago. These were not just picks of which team would win, but how many games each series would go.  As you might have seen, the Penguins beat the Lightning in seven games, and the San Jose Sharks beat the St. Louis Blues in six. Amazingly, those two results are exactly what the Swarm Intelligence predicted.

And here is the Swarm predicting the exact number of games the series would last.  The Vegas odds for predicting the two correct team, and the exact number of games by which that team would prevail, were approximately 16 to 1:

Go back and read the prediction. I don’t know anything about hockey, but I do know that researchers asked all 30 participants to make individual predictions about the same two series (as well as working together as swarm).  And of those 30 participants, 27 of them failed to identify both the winners of the series and the number of games.

In other words, the Swarm beat 90% of the individuals who comprised it, echoing the results researchers keep seeing – that swarming amplifies human intelligence, producing a group intellect that outperforms the vast majority of individual participants.  Researchers have seen this time and time again, at the Super Bowl, the Oscars, the College Football Playoffs, and more.  In fact, a Swarm Intelligence identified the longshot Blackhawks as the eventual NHL champion last year before the playoffs even began.

So, are we better off putting our money on the swarms’s picks, than our own? At least one member of the NHL swarm did so. Disregarding his own predictions, he decided to put $50 on the Penguins and Sharks to win. And then he did something remarkable. When the Lightening took a 3-2 lead in the series with the Penguins, he put another $50 down on the desperate Penguins to force a game 7 and eventually win the series. And, his faith in the Swarm was rewarded with a 304% Return on Investment. Here’s the betting slip:

The Stanley Cup finals start on Wednesday.  The swarm registered its prediction for a winner before the last round, at the same that the individual participants recorded their own picks. It’s worth noting that all 3 of the participants who correctly predicted the Penguins and Sharks in seven and six, respectively, tapped the Sharks to win the series. But, when thinking together in UNU, the Swarm reached a different conclusion.

You can do what you want with your money, but mine is on the Penguins. If you’d like to help us make more predictions about sports – or, even better, the stock market or Presidential election – just drop by UNU anytime.