New Academic Paper on Group Forecasting Shows the Power of Thinkscape
There’s an exciting new IEEE paper from Unanimous AI and Carnegie Mellon entitled “Conversational Forecasting Across Large Human Groups Using a Swarm of Surrogate AI Agents.” It describes a 12-week study in which groups of 25 sports fans were asked to “conversationally forecast” 50 NBA games (against the spread) using the Thinkscape platform (powered by Hyperchat AI technology).
The teams of 25 fans were given 5 minutes to predict each game (which is a very short time for any group of 25 people to hold a heated conversation and agree on anything, especially sports fans). The fact that every group of 25 easily converged on a forecast in under 5 minutes is an outcome in itself. Of course, the bigger question is: How accurate were these hyper-connected groups?
To give context, the results were compared to the Polymarket Prediction Market which produced forecasts for the same set of 50 NBA games by aggregating input across thousands of their members, each of whom purchased contracts on the team they believed would beat the spread.
So, which was smarter Thinkscape or Polymarket?
- ACCURACY: Prediction Market (Polymarket): 55% accurate against the spread
Prediction Swarm (Thinkscape): 62% accurate against the spread
- EFFICIENCY: Prediction Market (Polymarket): Thousands of forecasters over 48 hours.
Prediction Swarm (Thinkscape): 25 forecasters during a 5 minute interaction
These results show that smaller hyper-connected groups using Thinkscape can be more accurate and more efficient than large aggregated groups using Polymarket. This is not surprising because markets capture input in sequence (each forecast influences the next forecast), which creates “momentum” that overshoots and undershoots, eventually converging over time (if you have enough time and enough people). Hyperconnected swarms capture input in parallel, enabling the arguments with the strongest deliberative merit to drive faster convergence and greater accuracy.
The irony is that Prediction Markets were originally designed for use by enterprise teams but they never really took off because (a) they require too many forecasters, (b) they take too long collect the data and converge, and most importantly, (c) they give no insight into WHY the group converged on the outcomes (no underlying reasoning).
Thinkscape solves all three of these problems by enabling networked teams of 12 to 250 people to easily forecast together during a short meeting. And as soon as they’re done, the system instantly outputs not just a prediction (with a conviction metric) but the detailed underlying reasoning as to why the team converged the way it did. Specifically, Thinkscape identifies (based on deliberative merit and conversational influence) the most influential arguments in favor of each outcome (and the most influential counterarguments against each outcome).
In other words, Thinkscape provides more than a forecast: it harnesses and amplifies Team Intelligence at scale, making groups smarter, faster, and better informed.
The Technology
Thinkscape enables groups of potentially any size to discuss issues, brainstorm alternatives, assess risks, prioritize options, forecast outcomes and efficiently problem-solve at unprecedented scale.
It uses our patented Hyperchat AI™ technology, which has been proven to help teams deliberate faster and far more accurately.
The technology works by dividing large groups into a set of interconnected subgroups, each sized for thoughtful debate. A patented swarm of AI agents are then deployed to intelligently share insights raised in each subgroup with other subgroups. This connects the full set of participants into a coherent and productive real-time discussion that optimizes insights and elevates intelligent reasoning.
A diverse set of published studies show that large groups working together in Thinkscape get significantly smarter, arriving at better decisions, more accurate forecasts, and more creative brainstorms, all while fostering heightened feelings of collaboration and buy-in. To better understand how Hyperchat AI technology works inside the Thinkscape platform, check out this short video:
Want to learn more about how Thinkscape can help large teams reach more accurate decisions, forecasts, assessments, or solutions? Visit Thinkscape.ai.
