Sportspicker AI Weighs In on Very Evenly Matched Super Bowl
As reported previously, Sportspicker AI has been red hot during these NFL playoffs. After starting slow on Wild Card weekend, the AI model picked up steam in the Divisional Round, and then crushed the AFC/NFC Championship games. Altogether, Sportspicker AI is 6-3 for the Playoffs, with a 70% cumulative ROI. Here’s how a $1,000 bankroll has grown.
Now it’s time for the biggest game of all… In what appears to be one of the most evenly matched Super Bowls in recent memory, the Unanimous AI data science team put Sportspicker AI to work to make a prediction. Normally, we only provide these predictions to Sportspicker AI subscribers, but for the Super Bowl, we’ve decided to share far and wide.
Sportspicker AI predicts the Kansas City Chiefs will win the game and cover the slim 1-point spread. As you can see from the chart above, The AI model gives the Chiefs a 57.2% chance of covering the spread, which is 4.8% higher than the imputed 52.4% odds on a -110 line. That EDGE makes the Chiefs worth betting on. However, our 1.7 pick rating (on a 5 point scale) shows only moderate conviction in this pick.
That is our main prediction, but because it’s the Super Bowl, the Sportspicker AI team dug deeper into the details of the game. By analyzing some of the prop bets available for Super Bowl LIV, we’re able to paint a more complete picture of how the AI model views the game. This will also give you some guidance on prop bets (see chart below).
The primary narrative of Super Bowl LIV is about the Chiefs elite offense vs. the 49ers elite defense. And while the AI model expects the San Francisco defense to play well, largely by getting pressure on Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (forecast: OVER 2.5 sacks), we expect Patrick Mahomes (forecast: OVER 312.5 passing yards) to be able to carry the Chiefs to a slim victory (forecast: KC covers the -1 spread) in a high scoring game (forecast: total points OVER 55).
On the other hand, the model projects a very close game, conceding that the Niners have a realistic chance to pull the (minor) upset. If they do, we believe that it will more likely be thanks to the running game and/or the defense, as opposed to San Francisco QB Jimmy Garropolo (forecast: UNDER 239.5 passing yards).
If the Chiefs win, we predict the MVP will be Patrick Mahomes. If the 49ers pull out a win, the MVP is more variable, with the most likely MVP being one of Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle or Raheem Mostert.
To give a sense for how close this game could be, the AI model predicts that the 49ers are most likely to be leading at half-time, only to give up the lead to Kansas City in the second half. If the 49ers can build up enough of a lead in the first half, then eat up the clock with the running game, that is the most likely way Kansas City could go down. Still, we see a 60% chance that Kansas City pulls it out, and again, a 57% chance of covering the spread (NOTE: if the Chiefs win by exactly 1, they can win without covering the spread).
Here is the complete list of prop bets, analyzed by the AI model, related to the game itself.
And just for fun, the AI model analyzed a few of the more fun, non-game related props.
Want to read more? Our friends at Digital Trends wrote an article that goes beyond these predictions and profiles Swarm AI, the technology behind Sportpicker AI.
After Sunday, the NFL season will be over, but Sportspicker AI offers subscriptions for NBA basketball, NHL hockey and EPL soccer, with MLB baseball coming soon. Come join us!
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