We Predict the Battleground States using Swarm Intelligence
Unanimous AI has become famous over the last few years for making accurate forecasts across a wide range of topics, from sports and finance, to the Oscars and Grammys. Unlike other AI companies that make their prediction by processing large historical datasets, Unanimous AI connects large groups of people together over the internet, building a “Swarm Intelligence” that amplifies the combined knowledge, wisdom, insights, and intuitions of the human participants.
In 2016, Unanimous AI made headlines by correctly predicting the rise of Donald Trump as well as for accurately predicting his 100 day approval rating (42%) before he even took office. Now four years later, Unanimous has made its forecasts for the 2020 election. This time the company has focused on the battleground states which are the hardest the predict.
Below we show our Battleground State forecasts. These predictions were generated on September 21, exactly 45 days before election day. As you can see, we forecast that Biden will win New Hampshire, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada Pennsylvania, and Arizona, each by more than 2 percentage points. North Carolina and Florida were closest in our forecast, with the candidates being within 2 percentage point differences, a slight edge going to Trump. With Ohio and Texas being strongly Trump with more than 2 percentage point difference.
In addition, Unanimous AI generated forecasts for some of the most controversial issues surrounding the current election cycle, including the probabilities that either candidate (a) claims election fraud, regardless of whether or not there is evidence of fraud, and (b) whether either candidate refuses to concede the election after the votes have been counted and the results have been reported.
Does either candidate claim election fraud, regardless of whether there is evidence of fraud?
Does either candidate refuse to concede after the results have been certified and reported?
Swarm AI technology from Unanimous has been validated by numerous academic studies. For example, in a study published last year in the Journal Nature (Digital Medicine), medical teams at Stanford University significantly increased their accuracy when making diagnoses in real-time swarms. In another study, published in collaboration with researchers at MIT, financial teams significantly increased their forecasting accuracy (over 35%) when predicting financial markets. And finally, as published last year in Berkeley’s California Management Review, business teams using the Swarm software platform from Unanimous AI were able to quickly reach optimized decisions about marketing messages, advertising content, and sales forecasts.
Swarm Intelligence, the science behind the Swarm platform, is the reason why birds flock, bees swarm, and fish school – they are smarter together than alone. By forming closed-loop systems, these organisms produce insights, together in groups, that greatly exceed the abilities of any individual member. While humans have not evolved this ability naturally, Swarm technology enables this using AI, allowing groups to amplify their intelligence by forming real-time swarms. The process was described in a popular TED talk, demonstrating how Swarm technology can amplify human intelligence across a wide range of forecasting challenges.
“Businesses around the world have been using our Swarm platform for everything from sales forecasting to market research” said Dr. Louis Rosenberg, CEO of Unanimous, “but it’s the forecasts we do around global events like the U.S. election that truly demonstrate the power of our unique technology.”
About Unanimous AI
Unanimous AI builds technologies that amplify human intelligence using technologies modeled on the biological principle of Swarm Intelligence. Our award-winning Swarm platform is currently used by Fortune 500 companies around the world for everything from financial forecasting and market research, to optimized group decision-making and prioritization. Also, Unanimous has recently launched Sportspicker AI, the world’s first sports intelligence service that combines human insight with AI algorithms. #NSFFUNDED