Unanimous AI is pleased to report that our Sportspicker AI service was successful beating the Vegas oddsmakers across the full 2021 Major League Baseball season. For those who are unfamiliar with the service, we generate predictions weekly for large numbers of sporting events, providing our customers with rigorous forecasts as to which team will win against the spread. We generate these forecasts as probabilities so we can identify when there is an edge against the Vegas books. We mail these forecasts to our subscribers on a daily basis.
So, how did we do across the full 2021 MLB Season? Well, after forecasting over 900 baseball games in 2021 we generated a net gain against Vegas. In fact, any of our subscribers who followed our pick ratings and placed proportional bets against Vegas (in authorized betting markets) would have achieved a $1270 gain across the season.
As a comparison, we ran a detailed statistical analysis of what the “typical bettor” would have achieved had they used their own personal insights to place bets on the same set of games. The analysis shows that the typical better (with knowledge that matches the Vegas handicappers) would have lost $6,850 across the same set of games. This is because Vegas takes a 3% cut (approximately) from each wager placed, so even if you are just as smart as the Vegas handicappers, you generally come out behind. This analysis is shown below:
For those who have never subscribed to the Sportspicker AI intelligence service, it’s worth providing an example of what our weekly picks look like when we send them for a daily slate of games. As shown below, we distribute two sets of charts, each with a probability estimate and a pick rating for the set of games being played on that day. The first chart is for moneyline picks often referred to as “straight up”. The second chart is for picks against the spread, which in baseball is generally -1.5 or +1.5 runs.
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With the baseball season behind us, it’s worth pointing out that Sportspicker AI is currently generating weekly picks for a wide variety of sports, including all NFL FOOTBALL games this season as well as NHL HOCKEY games, NBA BASKETBALL games, EPL SOCCER (UK) and even BUNDESLIGA SOCCER (Germany).
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